Second generation smartphones or the death of classic business phones

The term smartphones covers a large class of devices that are united by the ability to store large amounts of information compared to conventional phones. Other additional features include a wide range of software that comes standard, not to mention the ability to install additional programs. Initially, smartphones were focused on business users, to a lesser extent on other groups of subscribers. This positioning is explained simply, only business users are demanding on functionality, and they can also pay for its presence in the model. Smartphone prices have always been higher than the average cost of a business phone, but over time, the cost of smartphones will decrease. However, we will observe a general reduction in the cost of mobile phones. Smartphones will occupy the niche of modern business devices, making the latter more affordable and significantly reducing their share in sales. What allows you to talk about it with such confidence? After all, now there are only a little more than a dozen devices of this class, and only two of them are known, these are Nokia 7650, Sony Ericsson P800. The average consumer does not know anything about other devices, and sales of these two smartphones are not as great as compared to conventional phones. Difficulties in sales of smartphones can now be explained by their high price, lower functionality than PDAs with comparable dimensions and weight. Many people prefer to use the PDA and phone separately, considering such a bundle more convenient. Nevertheless, a group of consumers has formed who are not embarrassed by the size of devices, but are attracted by their capabilities. They can be considered potential buyers of next-generation smartphones. However, let's take a look at what smartphones of the second and subsequent generations will be like, how this class of devices will develop.

Smartphones of the first generation are considered to be such devices as Nokia 7650, Sony Ericsson P800. Both devices are running Symbian, but different versions. De facto, it was Symbian that became the standard operating system for such devices; Microsoft's attempts to popularize its Microsoft Smartphone Edition OS were unsuccessful. The reason, apparently, is that Microsoft has well-established ties with manufacturers of computer equipment, but by no means mobile terminals; the company is a novice in this market segment. Buyers are not inclined to pay extra for a GSM/GPRS module in a PDA, since they already have a cell phone that can provide this functionality. Another thing is that replacing a mobile phone can lead to the choice of a smartphone, in rare cases a PDA with the same functions. At first glance, such a judgment looks controversial, but here the psychology of the buyer comes into play. The brand awareness of mobile terminal manufacturers is higher than that of PDA creators. It should also be remembered that sales of PDAs will not soon catch up with mobile terminals. In fairness, it should be noted that this aspect is not important for the target audience we are considering, since it is able to perceive new devices, based on their prestige, the proposed set of innovations. So, for many, the built-in digital camera in smartphones has become an incentive to buy them.This is an additional functionality that is appropriate in such a device, since it is always with you, but a PDA is more likely to be forgotten at home, it is used less time than a mobile phone. The buyer proceeds from issues of price and convenience, and here smartphones outweigh PDAs, losing to them in terms of memory capacity, expansion options, and performance. In general, the topic of comparing PDAs and smartphones is quite extensive and deserves a separate article, but here we will focus only on smartphones.

Second-generation devices are getting smaller in size, approaching modern phones in this parameter.

The main consumer complaint about smartphones Grey Goose, namely their large size. But at the same time, there is a problem of placing the control keys, there is practically no place for them. A device with PDA capabilities initially requires a wide range of information input capabilities. Adding touch screens can serve as a way out, but this leads to an increase in the cost, so far only Sony Ericsson is doing this. Products from Siemens, Nokia do not have touch screens; for entering information, a regular keyboard is used here, similar to that used in mobile phones. In the Siemens SX1 smartphone, the keys are located on the sides of the screen to save space. From the standpoint of ergonomics, this arrangement looks unfortunate, since dialing a number or text requires the use of two hands. On the other hand, this achieves a small size while maintaining a large screen.

At the end of the year, we will see a new wave of devices in which the issue of entering information is partially solved while maintaining the usable screen area. Yes, such devices will use a touch screen, for example, the P200 smartphone from Sony Ericsson. The cost of such smartphones will be at the level of 500 Euro, which is comparable to the price of top business devices at the time of their appearance. At the same time, smartphones provide not only greater functionality, but partially replace PDAs, allowing you to view documents from a desktop PC and partially edit them. You can talk about the pros for a long time, you need to understand that smartphones offer a qualitatively different level of service. And here we are talking not only about built-in digital cameras, so, at the end of the year, most ordinary mobile phones of all classes, with the exception of budget models, will get them. It is curious that the name camera phone, which they are trying to instill in this class of devices, does not look logical, since there will not be a separate class of such phones. In a year, 90 percent of all new phones will have a built-in camera, which means that such a name will not be justified. After all, the appearance of mp3 players in the same phones did not lead to the appearance of the name muzofon.

As you have already understood, the main trend in the development of smartphones is to reduce their size while maintaining multimedia functions (built-in cameras, mp3, memory cards, gaming capabilities). Interestingly, the capabilities of ordinary phones are also becoming more and more similar to those of smartphones (Java, BREW applications). The main difference between smartphones today can be considered the presence of its own operating system, standardized for this class of devices. In the future, it is possible that the user himself will be able to update the OS, and not just download additional programs. The second important feature for this class of devices is a large screen, because only it allows you to comfortably work with documents. And finally, the relatively large amount of memory allocated for user data, unlike traditional phones.

Smartphones of the second generation do not differ much in size from ordinary phones, and in terms of cost they are very close to the upper limit for business devices. This allows us to say that some business users will prefer smartphones to conventional phones. This is also supported by the fact that over time the cost of smartphones will decrease slightly, unlike conventional phones, which means that the prestige of devices will remain at a high level. The advantage is the great functionality of smartphones, additional features. At the first stage, smartphones will not crowd out all business devices, but only mid-range models. Thus, the demand for inexpensive business solutions, as well as top models, will traditionally remain. The latter will enjoy stable popularity, but their sales will not change the weather and will be comparable to those for smartphones. A decrease in demand threatens the business models of the middle class, and these, as a rule, include offers from second-tier manufacturers.

In a year, the smartphone segment will push business devices even further, in our opinion, it will be possible to say that sales of such terminals will remain at the same level and will not grow along with the market. In the long term, it is appropriate to talk about the substitution of the concept of a business phone, smartphones will rightfully become them. Separate specialized models in the classical sense of the business apparatus will certainly remain, but they will become niche and to some extent a tribute to the past. The replacement process, according to our estimates, will take about 4 years, the first round of development will come in the 3rd quarter of this year, when a wave of Symbian devices will appear on the market (Paragon II from Motorola, Sony Ericsson P200, products from Nokia, Sendo and other manufacturers). At the first round, the devices that have appeared will popularize the class of smartphones themselves, demonstrate their advantages, but at the same time will remain only partially in demand due to the relatively high price. Only the next wave of devices, which will take place in 2004, will make a breakthrough, as the cost of smartphones will become, if not democratic, then very attractive. It is from autumn 2004 that we should expect equal sales in the segment of smartphones and business devices. Further, over time, the share of business phones in sales will steadily decline until it reaches about 20 percent of sales (here we mean sales of both business phones and smartphones in general). Upon reaching such a value in sales, the very concept of a business phone will become different, however, as well as the designation of the class of smartphones.

An era of specialization will come for smartphones, devices will differ not only in their main capabilities, but also in their areas of application. So, it is quite possible that smartphones will appear for doctors (diagnostic sensors), for rescue services and other various professions. Based on the basic modules, a variety of devices will be created, which will still remain personal means of communication, but will also acquire a host of additional features. However, it is too early to talk about this, because this will most likely not happen in GSM networks.

Second generation smartphones or the death of classic business phones

The term smartphones covers a large class of devices that are united by the ability to store large amounts of information compared to conventional phones. Other additional features include a wide range of software that comes standard, not to mention the ability to install additional programs. Initially, smartphones were focused on business users, to a lesser extent on other groups of subscribers. This positioning is explained simply, only business users are demanding on functionality, and they can also pay for its presence in the model. Smartphone prices have always been higher than the average cost of a business phone, but over time, the cost of smartphones will decrease. However, we will observe a general reduction in the cost of mobile phones. Smartphones will occupy the niche of modern business devices, making the latter more affordable and significantly reducing their share in sales.What allows you to talk about it with such confidence? After all, now there are only a little more than a dozen devices of this class, and only two of them are known, these are Nokia 7650, Sony Ericsson P800. The average consumer does not know anything about other devices, and sales of these two smartphones are not as great as compared to conventional phones. Difficulties in sales of smartphones can now be explained by their high price, lower functionality than PDAs with comparable dimensions and weight. Many people prefer to use the PDA and phone separately, considering such a bundle more convenient. Nevertheless, a group of consumers has formed who are not embarrassed by the size of devices, but are attracted by their capabilities. They can be considered potential buyers of next-generation smartphones. However, let's take a look at what smartphones of the second and subsequent generations will be like, how this class of devices will develop.

Smartphones of the first generation are considered to be such devices as Nokia 7650, Sony Ericsson P800. Both devices are running Symbian, but different versions. De facto, it was Symbian that became the standard operating system for such devices; Microsoft's attempts to popularize its Microsoft Smartphone Edition OS were unsuccessful. The reason, apparently, is that Microsoft has well-established ties with manufacturers of computer equipment, but by no means mobile terminals; the company is a novice in this market segment. Buyers are not inclined to pay extra for a GSM/GPRS module in a PDA, since they already have a cell phone that can provide this functionality. Another thing is that replacing a mobile phone can lead to the choice of a smartphone, in rare cases a PDA with the same functions. At first glance, such a judgment looks controversial, but here the psychology of the buyer comes into play. The brand awareness of mobile terminal manufacturers is higher than that of PDA creators. It should also be remembered that sales of PDAs will not soon catch up with mobile terminals. In fairness, it should be noted that this aspect is not important for the target audience we are considering, since it is able to perceive new devices, based on their prestige, the proposed set of innovations. So, for many, the built-in digital camera in smartphones has become an incentive to buy them.This is an additional functionality that is appropriate in such a device, since it is always with you, but a PDA is more likely to be forgotten at home, it is used less time than a mobile phone. The buyer proceeds from issues of price and convenience, and here smartphones outweigh PDAs, losing to them in terms of memory capacity, expansion options, and performance. In general, the topic of comparing PDAs and smartphones is quite extensive and deserves a separate article, but here we will focus only on smartphones.

Second-generation devices are getting smaller in size, approaching modern phones in this parameter.

The main consumer complaint about smartphones Grey Goose, namely their large size. But at the same time, there is a problem of placing the control keys, there is practically no place for them. A device with PDA capabilities initially requires a wide range of information input capabilities. Adding touch screens can serve as a way out, but this leads to an increase in the cost, so far only Sony Ericsson is doing this. Products from Siemens, Nokia do not have touch screens; for entering information, a regular keyboard is used here, similar to that used in mobile phones. In the Siemens SX1 smartphone, the keys are located on the sides of the screen to save space. From the standpoint of ergonomics, this arrangement looks unfortunate, since dialing a number or text requires the use of two hands. On the other hand, this achieves a small size while maintaining a large screen.

At the end of the year, we will see a new wave of devices in which the issue of entering information is partially solved while maintaining the usable screen area. Yes, such devices will use a touch screen, for example, the P200 smartphone from Sony Ericsson. The cost of such smartphones will be at the level of 500 Euro, which is comparable to the price of top business devices at the time of their appearance. At the same time, smartphones provide not only greater functionality, but partially replace PDAs, allowing you to view documents from a desktop PC and partially edit them. You can talk about the pros for a long time, you need to understand that smartphones offer a qualitatively different level of service. And here we are talking not only about built-in digital cameras, so, at the end of the year, most ordinary mobile phones of all classes, with the exception of budget models, will get them. It is curious that the name camera phone, which they are trying to instill in this class of devices, does not look logical, since there will not be a separate class of such phones. In a year, 90 percent of all new phones will have a built-in camera, which means that such a name will not be justified. After all, the appearance of mp3 players in the same phones did not lead to the appearance of the name muzofon.

As you have already understood, the main trend in the development of smartphones is to reduce their size while maintaining multimedia functions (built-in cameras, mp3, memory cards, gaming capabilities). Interestingly, the capabilities of ordinary phones are also becoming more and more similar to those of smartphones (Java, BREW applications). The main difference between smartphones today can be considered the presence of its own operating system, standardized for this class of devices. In the future, it is possible that the user himself will be able to update the OS, and not just download additional programs. The second important feature for this class of devices is a large screen, because only it allows you to comfortably work with documents. And finally, the relatively large amount of memory allocated for user data, unlike traditional phones.

Smartphones of the second generation do not differ almost in size from conventional phones, and in terms of cost they are very close to the upper limit for business devices. This allows us to say that some business users will prefer smartphones to conventional phones. This is also supported by the fact that over time the cost of smartphones will decrease slightly, unlike conventional phones, which means that the prestige of devices will remain at a high level. The advantage is the great functionality of smartphones, additional features. At the first stage, smartphones will not crowd out all business devices, but only mid-range models. Thus, the demand for inexpensive business solutions, as well as top models, will traditionally remain. The latter will enjoy stable popularity, but their sales will not change the weather and will be comparable to those for smartphones. It is the business models of the middle class that are threatened by a decrease in demand, and these, as a rule, include offers from second-tier manufacturers.

In a year, the smartphone segment will push business devices even further, in our opinion, it will be possible to say that sales of such terminals will remain at the same level and will not grow along with the market. In the long term, it is appropriate to talk about the substitution of the concept of a business phone, smartphones will rightfully become them. Separate specialized models in the classical sense of the business apparatus will certainly remain, but they will become niche and to some extent a tribute to the past. The replacement process, according to our estimates, will take about 4 years, the first round of development will come in the 3rd quarter of this year, when a wave of Symbian devices will appear on the market (Paragon II from Motorola, Sony Ericsson P200, products from Nokia, Sendo and other manufacturers). At the first round, the devices that have appeared will popularize the class of smartphones themselves, demonstrate their advantages, but at the same time will remain only partially in demand due to the relatively high price. Only the next wave of devices, which will take place in 2004, will make a breakthrough, as the cost of smartphones will become, if not democratic, then very attractive. It is from autumn 2004 that we should expect equal sales in the segment of smartphones and business devices. Further, over time, the share of business phones in sales will steadily decline until it reaches about 20 percent of sales (here we mean sales of both business phones and smartphones in general). Upon reaching such a value in sales, the very concept of a business phone will become different, however, as well as the designation of the class of smartphones.

Smartphones of the first generation are considered to be such devices as Nokia 7650, Sony Ericsson P800. Both devices are running Symbian, but different versions. De facto, it was Symbian that became the standard operating system for such devices; Microsoft's attempts to popularize its Microsoft Smartphone Edition OS were unsuccessful. The reason, apparently, is that Microsoft has well-established ties with manufacturers of computer equipment, but by no means mobile terminals; the company is a novice in this market segment. Buyers are not inclined to pay extra for a GSM/GPRS module in a PDA, since they already have a cell phone that can provide this functionality. Another thing is that replacing a mobile phone can lead to the choice of a smartphone, in rare cases a PDA with the same functions. At first glance, such a judgment looks controversial, but here the psychology of the buyer comes into play. The brand awareness of mobile terminal manufacturers is higher than that of PDA creators. It should also be remembered that sales of PDAs will not soon catch up with mobile terminals. In fairness, it should be noted that this aspect is not important for the target audience we are considering, since it is able to perceive new devices, based on their prestige, the proposed set of innovations. So, for many, the built-in digital camera in smartphones has become an incentive to buy them.This is an additional functionality that is appropriate in such a device, since it is always with you, but a PDA is more likely to be forgotten at home, it is used less time than a mobile phone. The buyer proceeds from issues of price and convenience, and here smartphones outweigh PDAs, losing to them in terms of memory capacity, expansion options, and performance. In general, the topic of comparing PDAs and smartphones is quite extensive and deserves a separate article, but here we will focus only on smartphones.

Second-generation devices are getting smaller in size, approaching modern phones in this parameter.

The main consumer complaint about smartphones Grey Goose, namely their large size. But at the same time, there is a problem of placing the control keys, there is practically no place for them. A device with PDA capabilities initially requires a wide range of information input capabilities. Adding touch screens can serve as a way out, but this leads to an increase in the cost, so far only Sony Ericsson is doing this. Products from Siemens, Nokia do not have touch screens; for entering information, a regular keyboard is used here, similar to that used in mobile phones. In the Siemens SX1 smartphone, the keys are located on the sides of the screen to save space. From the standpoint of ergonomics, this arrangement looks unfortunate, since dialing a number or text requires the use of two hands. On the other hand, this achieves a small size while maintaining a large screen.

At the end of the year, we will see a new wave of devices in which the issue of entering information is partially solved while maintaining the usable screen area. Yes, such devices will use a touch screen, for example, the P200 smartphone from Sony Ericsson. The cost of such smartphones will be at the level of 500 Euro, which is comparable to the price of top business devices at the time of their appearance. At the same time, smartphones provide not only greater functionality, but partially replace PDAs, allowing you to view documents from a desktop PC and partially edit them. You can talk about the pros for a long time, you need to understand that smartphones offer a qualitatively different level of service. And here we are talking not only about built-in digital cameras, so, at the end of the year, most ordinary mobile phones of all classes, with the exception of budget models, will get them. It is curious that the name camera phone, which they are trying to instill in this class of devices, does not look logical, since there will not be a separate class of such phones. In a year, 90 percent of all new phones will have a built-in camera, which means that such a name will not be justified. After all, the appearance of mp3 players in the same phones did not lead to the appearance of the name muzofon.

As you have already understood, the main trend in the development of smartphones is to reduce their size while maintaining multimedia functions (built-in cameras, mp3, memory cards, gaming capabilities). Interestingly, the capabilities of ordinary phones are also becoming more and more similar to those of smartphones (Java, BREW applications). The main difference between smartphones today can be considered the presence of its own operating system, standardized for this class of devices. In the future, it is possible that the user himself will be able to update the OS, and not just download additional programs. The second important feature for this class of devices is a large screen, because only it allows you to comfortably work with documents. And finally, the relatively large amount of memory allocated for user data, unlike traditional phones.

Smartphones of the second generation do not differ much in size from ordinary phones, and in terms of cost they are very close to the upper limit for business devices. This allows us to say that some business users will prefer smartphones to conventional phones. This is also supported by the fact that over time the cost of smartphones will decrease slightly, unlike conventional phones, which means that the prestige of devices will remain at a high level. The advantage is the great functionality of smartphones, additional features. At the first stage, smartphones will not crowd out all business devices, but only mid-range models. Thus, the demand for inexpensive business solutions, as well as top models, will traditionally remain. The latter will enjoy stable popularity, but their sales will not change the weather and will be comparable to those for smartphones. A decrease in demand threatens the business models of the middle class, and these, as a rule, include offers from second-tier manufacturers.

In a year, the smartphone segment will push business devices even further, in our opinion, it will be possible to say that sales of such terminals will remain at the same level and will not grow along with the market. In the long term, it is appropriate to talk about the substitution of the concept of a business phone, smartphones will rightfully become them. Separate specialized models in the classical sense of the business apparatus will certainly remain, but they will become niche and to some extent a tribute to the past. The replacement process, according to our estimates, will take about 4 years, the first round of development will come in the 3rd quarter of this year, when a wave of Symbian devices will appear on the market (Paragon II from Motorola, Sony Ericsson P200, products from Nokia, Sendo and other manufacturers). At the first round, the devices that have appeared will popularize the class of smartphones themselves, demonstrate their advantages, but at the same time will remain only partially in demand due to the relatively high price. Only the next wave of devices, which will take place in 2004, will make a breakthrough, as the cost of smartphones will become, if not democratic, then very attractive. It is from autumn 2004 that we should expect equal sales in the segment of smartphones and business devices. Further, over time, the share of business phones in sales will steadily decline until it reaches about 20 percent of sales (here we mean sales of both business phones and smartphones in general). Upon reaching such a value in sales, the very concept of a business phone will become different, however, as well as the designation of the class of smartphones.

An era of specialization will come for smartphones, devices will differ not only in their main capabilities, but also in their areas of application. So, it is quite possible that smartphones will appear for doctors (diagnostic sensors), for rescue services and other various professions. Based on the basic modules, a variety of devices will be created, which will still remain personal means of communication, but will also acquire a host of additional features. However, it is too early to talk about this, because this will most likely not happen in GSM networks.

Second generation smartphones or the death of classic business phones

The term smartphones covers a large class of devices that are united by the ability to store large amounts of information compared to conventional phones. Other additional features include a wide range of software that comes standard, not to mention the ability to install additional programs. Initially, smartphones were focused on business users, to a lesser extent on other groups of subscribers. This positioning is explained simply, only business users are demanding on functionality, and they can also pay for its presence in the model. Smartphone prices have always been higher than the average cost of a business phone, but over time, the cost of smartphones will decrease. However, we will observe a general reduction in the cost of mobile phones. Smartphones will occupy the niche of modern business devices, making the latter more affordable and significantly reducing their share in sales.What allows you to speak about it with such confidence? After all, now there are only a little more than a dozen devices of this class, and only two of them are known, these are Nokia 7650, Sony Ericsson P800. The average consumer does not know anything about other devices, and sales of these two smartphones are not as great as compared to conventional phones. Difficulties in sales of smartphones can now be explained by their high price, lower functionality than PDAs with comparable dimensions and weight. Many people prefer to use the PDA and phone separately, considering such a bundle more convenient. Nevertheless, a group of consumers has formed who are not embarrassed by the size of devices, but are attracted by their capabilities. They can be considered potential buyers of next-generation smartphones. However, let's take a look at what smartphones of the second and subsequent generations will be like, how this class of devices will develop.

Smartphones of the first generation are considered to be such devices as Nokia 7650, Sony Ericsson P800. Both devices are running Symbian, but different versions. De facto, it was Symbian that became the standard operating system for such devices; Microsoft's attempts to popularize its Microsoft Smartphone Edition OS were unsuccessful. The reason, apparently, is that Microsoft has well-established ties with manufacturers of computer equipment, but by no means mobile terminals; the company is a novice in this market segment. Buyers are not inclined to pay extra for a GSM/GPRS module in a PDA, since they already have a cell phone that can provide this functionality. Another thing is that replacing a mobile phone can lead to the choice of a smartphone, in rare cases a PDA with the same functions. At first glance, such a judgment looks controversial, but here the psychology of the buyer comes into play. The brand awareness of mobile terminal manufacturers is higher than that of PDA creators. It should also be remembered that sales of PDAs will not soon catch up with mobile terminals. In fairness, it should be noted that this aspect is not important for the target audience we are considering, since it is able to perceive new devices, based on their prestige, the proposed set of innovations. So, for many, the built-in digital camera in smartphones has become an incentive to buy them. This is an additional functionality that is appropriate in such a device, since it is always with you, but a PDA is more likely to be forgotten at home, it is used less time than a mobile phone. The buyer proceeds from issues of price and convenience, and here smartphones outweigh PDAs, losing to them in terms of memory capacity, expansion options, and performance. In general, the topic of comparing PDAs and smartphones is quite extensive and deserves a separate article, but here we will focus only on smartphones.

Second-generation devices are getting smaller in size, approaching modern phones in this parameter.

The main claim of consumers to Gray Goose smartphones, namely their large size, disappears. But at the same time, there is a problem of placing the control keys, there is practically no place for them. A device with PDA capabilities initially requires a wide range of information input capabilities. Adding touch screens can serve as a way out, but this leads to an increase in the cost, so far only Sony Ericsson is doing this. Products from Siemens, Nokia do not have touch screens; for entering information, a regular keyboard is used here, similar to that used in mobile phones. In the Siemens SX1 smartphone, the keys are located on the sides of the screen to save space. From the standpoint of ergonomics, this arrangement looks unfortunate, since dialing a number or text requires the use of two hands. On the other hand, this achieves a small size while maintaining a large screen.

The main claim of consumers to smartphones disappears Grey Goose Gray goose , namely their large size. But at the same time, there is a problem of placing the control keys, there is practically no place for them. A device with PDA capabilities initially requires a wide range of information input capabilities. Adding touch screens can serve as a way out, but this leads to an increase in the cost, so far only Sony Ericsson is doing this. Products from Siemens, Nokia do not have touch screens; for entering information, a regular keyboard is used here, similar to that used in mobile phones. In the Siemens SX1 smartphone, the keys are located on the sides of the screen to save space. From the standpoint of ergonomics, this arrangement looks unfortunate, since dialing a number or text requires the use of two hands. On the other hand, this achieves a small size while maintaining a large screen.

At the end of the year, we will see a new wave of devices in which the issue of entering information is partially solved while maintaining the usable screen area. Yes, such devices will use a touch screen, for example, the P200 smartphone from Sony Ericsson. The cost of such smartphones will be at the level of 500 Euro, which is comparable to the price of top business devices at the time of their appearance. At the same time, smartphones provide not only greater functionality, but partially replace PDAs, allowing you to view documents from a desktop PC and partially edit them.You can talk about the pros for a long time, you need to understand that smartphones offer a qualitatively different level of service. And here we are talking not only about built-in digital cameras, so, at the end of the year, most ordinary mobile phones of all classes, with the exception of budget models, will get them. It is curious that the name camera phone, which they are trying to instill in this class of devices, does not look logical, since there will not be a separate class of such phones. In a year, 90 percent of all new phones will have a built-in camera, which means that such a name will not be justified. After all, the appearance of mp3 players in the same phones did not lead to the appearance of the name muzofon.

As you have already understood, the main trend in the development of smartphones is to reduce their size while maintaining multimedia functions (built-in cameras, mp3, memory cards, gaming capabilities). Interestingly, the capabilities of ordinary phones are also becoming more and more similar to those of smartphones (Java, BREW applications). The main difference between smartphones today can be considered the presence of its own operating system, standardized for this class of devices. In the future, it is possible that the user himself will be able to update the OS, and not just download additional programs. The second important feature for this class of devices is a large screen, because only it allows you to comfortably work with documents. And finally, the relatively large amount of memory allocated for user data, unlike traditional phones.

Smartphones of the second generation do not differ much in size from ordinary phones, and in terms of cost they are very close to the upper limit for business devices. This allows us to say that some business users will prefer smartphones to conventional phones. This is also supported by the fact that over time the cost of smartphones will decrease slightly, unlike conventional phones, which means that the prestige of devices will remain at a high level. The advantage is the great functionality of smartphones, additional features. At the first stage, smartphones will not crowd out all business devices, but only mid-range models. Thus, the demand for inexpensive business solutions, as well as top models, will traditionally remain. The latter will enjoy stable popularity, but their sales will not change the weather and will be comparable to those for smartphones. A decrease in demand threatens the business models of the middle class, and these, as a rule, include offers from second-tier manufacturers.

In a year, the smartphone segment will push business devices even further, in our opinion, it will be possible to say that sales of such terminals will remain at the same level and will not grow along with the market. In the long term, it is appropriate to talk about the substitution of the concept of a business phone, smartphones will rightfully become them. Separate specialized models in the classical sense of the business apparatus will certainly remain, but they will become niche and to some extent a tribute to the past. The replacement process, according to our estimates, will take about 4 years, the first round of development will come in the 3rd quarter of this year, when a wave of Symbian devices will appear on the market (Paragon II from Motorola, Sony Ericsson P200, products from Nokia, Sendo and other manufacturers). At the first round, the devices that have appeared will popularize the class of smartphones themselves, demonstrate their advantages, but at the same time will remain only partially in demand due to the relatively high price. Only the next wave of devices, which will take place in 2004, will make a breakthrough, as the cost of smartphones will become, if not democratic, then very attractive. It is from autumn 2004 that we should expect equal sales in the segment of smartphones and business devices. Further, over time, the share of business phones in sales will steadily decline until it reaches about 20 percent of sales (here we mean sales of both business phones and smartphones in general). Upon reaching such a value in sales, the very concept of a business phone will become different, however, as well as the designation of the class of smartphones.

An era of specialization will come for smartphones, devices will differ not only in their main capabilities, but also in their areas of application. So, it is quite possible that smartphones will appear for doctors (diagnostic sensors), for rescue services and other various professions. Based on the basic modules, a variety of devices will be created, which will still remain personal means of communication, but will also acquire a host of additional features. However, it is too early to talk about this, because this will most likely not happen in GSM networks.