#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

Hysteria is gaining momentum. An advertisement for protective masks has arrived. He put on a mask on himself, on a dog and went so businesslike.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

But mask prices have jumped significantly. Here is how the cost of one of the high protection respirators has grown.

#Echo62: Is the new Nokia successful?

In China, the virus is on the decline, and factories are starting to work. The trouble is that the rest of the world is shutting down.

One of the curious consequences of the virus is the cancellation of NBA games. According to the WSJ, the two biggest sports channels alone spend $2.7 billion a year on US screenings. And this is not only the rights to broadcast, significant marketing budgets have been spent on these events. And now the channels are faced with the fact that they literally have nothing to put on the air. People are starting to unsubscribe. In short, even if the virus ends in the next couple of months, we will still be dealing with its consequences in all areas for a very long time.

Super coffee maker

In Silicon Valley, which is usually called Silicon Valley in Russia, there is a new feature that makes all IT startups squeal. This is AeroPress, a coffee maker for 1-3 cups. It costs 32 dollars. Customers all agree that the AeroPress makes the best coffee they've ever had. The inventor of the coffee maker, Mr. Alan Adler, has already earned himself a Bentley and a house by the sea in a prestigious location. As the inventor himself says, he played on the love of IT people for analog things.

#Echo62: Is the new Nokia successful?

The principle of operation is simple. You pour coffee, pour hot water, and then press with your hand, forcing water through the coffee and the filter. Everyone is very happy that they can independently control the grinding, water temperature, and pressure. I am glad that in our mega-modern world you can make money on Bentley by inventing a manual coffee maker. The main theme of Echo is Nokia. And, by the way, perhaps Nokia should learn something from the coffee maker. Still, both companies play on "analog".

Nokia

The crash of Nokia in 2013 is still one of the biggest events in the world history of the hi-tech industry. So many years have passed, and many works are still being published devoted to the analysis of the situation and the actions of management, theories are offered on how such a cataclysm could have been avoided.

For a proper understanding of the scale of what happened, it is important to remember that the destructive actions of Stephen Elop, the last CEO of the original Nokia, who buried it, were foretold in the book of Ezekiel 26:4,5:

And they will break the walls ... and destroy its towers; and I will sweep his dust out of him, and make him a bare rock. ... and he will be plundered

That's exactly what happened. During the reign of Stephen Elop, Nokia shares sank 62%, many patents were squandered, and Mr. Elop himself earned at least $ 30 million. That amount includes such amusing payouts as a $6 million welcome bonus for taking office, as well as €18.8 million in compensation when Microsoft took over the bankrupt Nokia. Even the government of Finland was surprised by the last amount.

One relief is that dirty deeds are always rewarded with retribution and everything happens as predicted (Ezek 25:7):

for the fact that you applauded and stamped your foot, and with all contempt for the earth ...

Behold, I will stretch out my hand against you and give you to be plundered by the nations, and I will cut you off from among the nations, and will blot you out from among the lands; crush you…

Everything is in accordance with the prediction. Satya Nadella, as soon as he gained full power at Microsoft, immediately reduced Elop. He tried to get a job at Telstra (a telecommunications provider in Australia), but from there he was laid off. And only at the end of 2019, Elop found himself a CEO position in a seedy startup developing analytics systems for aircraft. From a recent interview, it became clear that Mr. Elop did not understand anything. He described his work on integrating Nokia into Microsoft as "one of the best he has seen in his career in terms of insights, decision making and respect for people."

Nokia structure

After the perturbations with Microsoft, attempts began to revive phones under the Nokia brand. In general, speaking about Nokia, it should be remembered that this is a large corporation that has many divisions: Nokia Mobile & Fixed Networks, Nokia Software, Nokia Technologies and others.

And the failure with smartphones, though significant, did not kill the rest of the company. As you can see from the chart from the 2019 report, the company's main income comes from work in the telecommunications equipment market. Nokia is active in the 5G market.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

It was like this. In 2015, the "big" Nokia thought about the revival of the Nokia phone brand and, in general, the continuation of the development of the gadget category. But in order not to lose focus, the CEO of the "big" Nokia Razhev Suri expressed a desire to be a partner with another company that would take over the entire routine associated with sales and promotion. This is how HMD Global appeared, founded by people from Nokia in collaboration with FIH Mobile, Foxconn's subsidiary, which, in fact, is a contract manufacturer. "Big" Nokia, despite the fact that it has no investment in HDM Global, controls the latter through various licensing agreements, patent rights and technologies. According to rumors, she receives from 11 to 23 dollars from each sold phone in the form of royalties. And if they don't like something, they can even take away the rights to the brand, the agreement for which was concluded for a period of 10 years.

A similar situation with the Blackberry brand, when the original Blackberry goes about its business, and smartphones are produced by a third-party manufacturer, but in agreement with the parent company. The only difference is that there were Chinese, and here is a layer of their Finns, who are already communicating with the Chinese. They even have offices next door, less than 4 km in a straight line.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

If you draw a diagram, the current structure of Nokia looks like this. The "big" Nokia is in charge of networks and out of the corner of its eye controls what HMD Global does, which partners with Foxconn's subsidiary FIH Mobile to assemble Nokia-branded smartphones and phones.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

How successful is modern Nokia?

Big Nokia

I would like to start a conversation with the parent company. On the one hand, ordinary users are indifferent to it. On the other hand, she is a kind of guarantor of the quality of smartphones and phones, since she owns the brand. And things at Nokia, to put it mildly, are not very good. The fact that not everything is going well in the Finnish kingdom is also evidenced by the graph of investor confidence in the company, which has dramatically decreased over the past year.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

The problems are so obvious that Nokia changed its CEO in early March. And in place of Razhev Suri, who led the company for the last 10 years, came Pekka Lundmark (Pekka Lundmark). The transition is expected to be completed by September.

#Echo62: Is the new Nokia successful?

New CEO on the left, Razhev Suri on the right

The main problem: Nokia has not been able to win anything, despite the fact that other players in the market have a lot of problems. Huawei is fighting off the US, and Ericsson paid more than $1 billion in fines over a corruption scandal in late December. The company admitted to bribing officials in China, Vietnam and Indonesia. This is a rather serious reputational blow, which will shake up many contracts.

It is interesting that Huawei's position in the telecommunications market is still strong. The company offers such value for money that most operators and providers would rather incur the wrath of the US than spend money on Nokia. The new CEO will have to find solutions to restore people's faith in the company.

Phones and Nokia

As early as Thursday at 8 pm, the site will have a text dedicated to the new smartphones that the company was going to present at MWC. And we will be able to assess whether 2020 will be the year when the world starts talking about Nokia again.

In general, the timing is good. Yes, on the one hand, the world is in quarantine because of the virus, and everyone is worried. On the other hand, sitting within four walls is boring, and the Internet has already been flooded with videos of how Italians collectively sing songs, standing on balconies, how you can usefully spend time at home, and even how some athletes are preparing for a marathon and winding up one by one for 50 kilometers (and this is without a treadmill, they run around the apartment).

Accordingly, a certain window of opportunity is now opening. Calm everywhere, most of the news is sad, film premieres and events are postponed. For brands, this is an opportunity to communicate with customers, captivate them, and when there is no other news, it is much easier to talk about your product.

"Dialers"

Usually, reporting helps to understand how the company earns. For example, it is clearly seen that Samsung is, in fact, an excellent manufacturer of components, specifically memory of all types and purposes. Apple's reporting clearly shows that this is a company of one product, without which everything will begin to crumble. Reporting from Canon, Olympus and other Japanese photo makers shows that in reality these companies are now more about medical technology than about photography. And the figures from Sony say that this is not about smartphones at all, however, this is understandable even without reports.

Looking by analogy at Nokia (HMD Global), it is obvious that we have a powerful manufacturer of push-button phones. Unfortunately, HMD Global does not share sales reports, so we have to be content with the assessment of analytical agencies.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

The graph shows that Nokia (HMD Global)'s core business is the dialer market. In 2019, the company sold only 14.5 million smartphones and 53.2 million push-button devices. If you think about it, then all the high-profile announcements of Nokia were generally associated with the "button". The company skillfully played on nostalgia, offering an updated model Nokia 3310 and a bright "banana" Nokia 8110.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

The market for push-button smartphones is actively falling every year, but it is still quite significant. In 2019, the drop was 22% and the volume decreased to 374.6 million pieces. The market will continue to fall. For example, due to the spread of smartphones in India, the local dialer market decreased by 42% over the year.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

Nokia's strongest positions are where the brand was well known.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

However, Nokia still does not have a bright hit in the portfolio. Nostalgia games did their job at the time of the announcement, but later people came to the conclusion that these were just similar smartphones and there was no spirit of a bygone era in them.

As an example of a breakthrough, I would like to cite Alcatel, which literally blew up the North American market in 2019. The market for push-button smartphones in 2019 there grew by 35%, and all thanks to Alcatel. Unrealistic figure.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

The reason for success? Go Flip is a series on KaiOS. KaiOS - Internet, e-mail and instant messengers like WhatsApp. But Nokia has almost the same stuff, why Alcatel? About push-button phones in the USA, I think I will make a separate article. But as a hint, I will leave a list of operators with whom Alcatel cooperates, and a screenshot from the store of one of the operators. Formally, no innovations, purely management and business. But inside the situation is much more interesting.

#Echo62: Is the new Nokia successful? #Echo62: new Nokia successful? width=

Smartphones

However, in the smartphone market, the company is also not going smoothly. "Legendary" models are over, and Nokia began to push the competition.

Of the announcements on the smartphone market, perhaps only Nokia 9 Pure View with five cameras is remembered. By the way, here HMD Global tried to play on the legacy of the past, dragging in the name PureView, which was first heard at MWC in Barcelona in 2012, when the Nokia 808 PureView was announced.

#Echo62: Is the new Nokia successful?

They talked about Nokia 9, and they were waiting for it with interest, but in the end it turned out that Nokia 9 was already at the time of release Office Table +Chair has received significant criticism. They criticized the formally last year's chipset (why Snapdragon 845, but they said 855), and the slow operation of the cameras (you had to wait 10 seconds for photos in the gallery), and most importantly, a tight fingerprint scanner. Then it was corrected, but it was too late.

The main problem with Nokia 9 was that it is a smartphone for enthusiasts, where the "raisins" from the photo have to be picked out in a photo editor. This decision goes against the trends, which, on the contrary, are in the direction of simplification. Some camera manufacturers are already hiding the Pro mode from the main menu. For example, Samsung did this after updating its shell to the next version. Huawei says the same, promising that in the new P40 everything will work on the “point and shoot” principle, and the smartphone will decide for itself whether landscape, portrait or macro.

And here there is a duality of human perception: on the one hand, people want the prefix “for the pros” in the names of gadgets, on the other hand, they don’t want to bother. Accordingly, for success, you need to build a strategy on this. Like, we have 5 cameras, a choice of professional photographers and a bunch of settings under the hood, but in fact you can take great pictures in auto mode.

Speaking about Nokia smartphones, we can say that they have difficulties with positioning and perception. Probably, in order to reduce costs, smartphones are being released under the Android One program. And while some users may say that pure Android is great and timely updates are important, most users want the convenience of a shell and the ability to use the device out of the box without wasting time looking for an ad-free weather widget.

In general, Nokia has only played games on nostalgia so far, and despite the fact that about 30 devices have already been released in total, there have been only two really bright smartphones. I can remember Nokia 7 Plus and 9 PureView. At IFA 2019 in September, Nokia showed off the beautiful Nokia 7.2 powered by Snapdragon 660, which is over 3 years old.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

Conclusion

2020 is coming to Nokia under siege on all fronts. "Big" Nokia was unable to realize its advantage in the telecom equipment market and is now paying the price, HMD Global is under serious attack from competitors in the dialer market, which is also narrowing, and in the smartphone market, interest in the company has significantly decreased after a failed 9 PureView and walk-through models at IFA 2019.

The new smartphones, which we will tell you about on March 19, are accompanied by an advertising campaign with a daring slogan "The only gadget you need" and a partnership with James Bond (whose premiere was so unfortunately postponed to November). Let's keep our fingers crossed so that Nokia succeeds.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

Hysteria is gaining momentum. An advertisement for protective masks has arrived. He put on a mask on himself, on a dog and went so businesslike.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

But mask prices have jumped significantly. Here is how the cost of one of the high protection respirators has grown.

#Echo62: Is the new Nokia successful?

In China, the virus is on the decline, and factories are starting to work. The trouble is that the rest of the world is shutting down.

One of the curious consequences of the virus is the cancellation of NBA games. According to the WSJ, the two biggest sports channels alone spend $2.7 billion a year on US screenings. And this is not only the rights to broadcast, significant marketing budgets have been spent on these events. And now the channels are faced with the fact that they literally have nothing to put on the air. People are starting to unsubscribe. In short, even if the virus ends in the next couple of months, we will still be dealing with its consequences in all areas for a very long time.

Super coffee maker

In Silicon Valley, which is usually called Silicon Valley in Russia, there is a new feature that makes all IT startups squeal. This is AeroPress, a coffee maker for 1-3 cups. It costs 32 dollars. Customers all agree that the AeroPress makes the best coffee they've ever had. The inventor of the coffee maker, Mr. Alan Adler, has already earned himself a Bentley and a house by the sea in a prestigious location. As the inventor himself says, he played on the love of IT people for analog things.

#Echo62: Is the new Nokia successful?

The principle of operation is simple. You pour coffee, pour hot water, and then press with your hand, forcing water through the coffee and the filter. Everyone is very happy that they can independently control the grinding, water temperature, and pressure. I am glad that in our mega-modern world you can make money on Bentley by inventing a manual coffee maker. The main theme of Echo is Nokia. And, by the way, perhaps Nokia should learn something from the coffee maker. Still, both companies play on "analog".

Nokia

The crash of Nokia in 2013 is still one of the biggest events in the world history of the hi-tech industry. So many years have passed, and many works are still being published devoted to the analysis of the situation and the actions of management, theories are offered on how such a cataclysm could have been avoided.

For a proper understanding of the scale of what happened, it is important to remember that the destructive actions of Stephen Elop, the last CEO of the original Nokia, who buried it, were foretold in the book of Ezekiel 26:4,5:

And they will break the walls ... and destroy its towers; and I will sweep his dust out of him, and make him a bare rock. ... and he will be plundered

That's exactly what happened. During the reign of Stephen Elop, Nokia shares sank 62%, many patents were squandered, and Mr. Elop himself earned at least $ 30 million. That amount includes such amusing payouts as a $6 million welcome bonus for taking office, as well as €18.8 million in compensation when Microsoft took over the bankrupt Nokia. Even the government of Finland was surprised by the last amount.

One relief is that dirty deeds are always rewarded with retribution and everything happens as predicted (Ezek 25:7):

for the fact that you applauded and stamped your foot, and with all contempt for the earth ...

Behold, I will stretch out my hand against you and give you to be plundered by the nations, and I will cut you off from among the nations, and will blot you out from among the lands; crush you…

Everything is in accordance with the prediction. Satya Nadella, as soon as he gained full power at Microsoft, immediately reduced Elop. He tried to get a job at Telstra (a telecommunications provider in Australia), but from there he was laid off. And only at the end of 2019, Elop found himself a CEO position in a seedy startup developing analytics systems for aircraft. From a recent interview, it became clear that Mr. Elop did not understand anything. He described his work on integrating Nokia into Microsoft as "one of the best he has seen in his career in terms of insights, decision making and respect for people."

Nokia structure

After the perturbations with Microsoft, attempts began to revive phones under the Nokia brand. In general, speaking about Nokia, it should be remembered that this is a large corporation that has many divisions: Nokia Mobile & Fixed Networks, Nokia Software, Nokia Technologies and others.

And the failure with smartphones, although significant, did not kill the rest of the company. As you can see from the chart from the 2019 report, the company's main income comes from work in the telecommunications equipment market. Nokia is active in the 5G market.

#Echo62: Is the new Nokia successful?

It was like this. In 2015, the "big" Nokia thought about the revival of the Nokia phone brand and, in general, the continuation of the development of the gadget category. But in order not to lose focus, the CEO of the "big" Nokia Razhev Suri expressed a desire to be a partner with another company that would take over the entire routine associated with sales and promotion. This is how HMD Global appeared, founded by people from Nokia in collaboration with FIH Mobile, Foxconn's subsidiary, which, in fact, is a contract manufacturer. "Big" Nokia, despite having no investment in HDM Global, controls the latter through various licensing agreements, patent rights and technologies. According to rumors, she receives from 11 to 23 dollars from each sold phone in the form of royalties. And if they don't like something, they can even take away the rights to the brand, the agreement for which was concluded for a period of 10 years.

A similar situation with the Blackberry brand, when the original Blackberry goes about its business, and smartphones are produced by a third-party manufacturer, but in agreement with the parent company. The only difference is that there were Chinese, and here is a layer of their Finns, who are already communicating with the Chinese. They even have offices next door, less than 4 km in a straight line.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

If you draw a diagram, the current structure of Nokia looks like this. The "big" Nokia is in charge of networks and out of the corner of its eye controls what HMD Global does, which partners with Foxconn's subsidiary FIH Mobile to assemble Nokia-branded smartphones and phones.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

How successful is modern Nokia?

Big Nokia

I would like to start a conversation with the parent company. On the one hand, ordinary users are indifferent to it. On the other hand, she is a kind of guarantor of the quality of smartphones and phones, since she owns the brand. And things at Nokia, to put it mildly, are not very good. The fact that not everything is going well in the Finnish kingdom is also evidenced by the graph of investor confidence in the company, which has dramatically decreased over the past year.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

The problems are so obvious that Nokia changed its CEO in early March. And in place of Razhev Suri, who led the company for the last 10 years, came Pekka Lundmark (Pekka Lundmark). The transition is expected to be completed by September.

#Echo62: Is the new Nokia successful?

New CEO on the left, Razhev Suri on the right

The main problem: Nokia has not been able to win anything, despite the fact that other players in the market have a lot of problems. Huawei is fighting back against the US, and Ericsson paid more than $1 billion in fines over a corruption scandal in late December. The company admitted to bribing officials in China, Vietnam and Indonesia. This is a fairly serious reputational blow, which will shake up many contracts.

It is interesting that Huawei's position in the telecommunications market is still strong. The company offers such value for money that most operators and providers would rather incur the wrath of the US than spend money on Nokia. The new CEO will have to find solutions to restore people's faith in the company.

Phones and Nokia

As early as Thursday at 8 pm, the site will have a text dedicated to the new smartphones that the company was going to present at MWC. And we will be able to assess whether 2020 will be the year when the world starts talking about Nokia again.

In general, the timing is good. Yes, on the one hand, the world is in quarantine because of the virus, and everyone is worried. On the other hand, sitting within four walls is boring, and the Internet has already been flooded with videos of how Italians collectively sing songs, standing on balconies, how you can usefully spend time at home, and even how some athletes are preparing for a marathon and winding one by one for 50 kilometers (and this is without a treadmill, they run around the apartment).

Accordingly, a certain window of opportunity is now opening. Calm everywhere, most of the news is sad, film premieres and events are postponed. For brands, this is an opportunity to communicate with customers, captivate them, and when there is no other news, it is much easier to talk about your product.

"Dialers"

Usually, reporting helps to understand how the company earns. For example, it is clearly seen that Samsung is, in fact, an excellent manufacturer of components, specifically memory of all types and purposes. Apple's reporting clearly shows that this is a company of one product, without which everything will begin to crumble. Reporting from Canon, Olympus and other Japanese photo makers shows that in reality these companies are now more about medical technology than about photography. And the figures from Sony say that this is not about smartphones at all, however, this is understandable even without reports.

Looking by analogy at Nokia (HMD Global), it is obvious that we have a powerful manufacturer of push-button phones. Unfortunately, HMD Global does not share sales reports, so we have to be content with the assessment of analytical agencies.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

The graph shows that Nokia (HMD Global)'s core business is the dialer market. In 2019, the company sold only 14.5 million smartphones and 53.2 million push-button devices. If you think about it, then all the high-profile announcements of Nokia were generally associated with the "button". The company skillfully played on nostalgia, offering an updated model Nokia 3310 and a bright "banana" Nokia 8110.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

The market for push-button smartphones is actively falling every year, but it is still quite significant. In 2019, the drop was 22% and the volume decreased to 374.6 million pieces. The market will continue to fall. For example, due to the spread of smartphones in India, the local dialer market decreased by 42% over the year.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

Nokia's strongest positions are where the brand was well known.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

However, Nokia still does not have a bright hit in the portfolio. Nostalgia games did their job at the time of the announcement, but later people came to the conclusion that these were just similar smartphones and there was no spirit of a bygone era in them.

As an example of a breakthrough, I would like to cite Alcatel, which literally blew up the North American market in 2019. The market for push-button smartphones in 2019 there grew by 35%, and all thanks to Alcatel. Unrealistic figure.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

The reason for success? Go Flip is a series on KaiOS. KaiOS - Internet, e-mail and instant messengers like WhatsApp. But Nokia has almost the same stuff, why Alcatel? About push-button phones in the USA, I think I will make a separate article. But as a hint, I will leave a list of operators with whom Alcatel cooperates, and a screenshot from the store of one of the operators. Formally, no innovations, purely management and business. But inside the situation is much more interesting.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful? #Echo62: new Nokia successful? width=

Smartphones

However, in the smartphone market, the company is also not going smoothly. The "legendary" models are over, and Nokia began to push the competition.

Of the announcements on the smartphone market, perhaps only Nokia 9 Pure View with five cameras is remembered. By the way, here HMD Global tried to play on the legacy of the past, dragging in the name PureView, which was first heard at MWC in Barcelona in 2012, when the Nokia 808 PureView was announced.

#Echo62: Is the new Nokia successful?

They were talking about Nokia 9, and they were waiting for it with interest, but in the end it turned out that Nokia 9 was already at the time of release Office Table +Chair has received significant criticism. They criticized last year's formal chipset (why Snapdragon 845, but they said 855), and the slow operation of the cameras (photos in the gallery had to wait for 10 seconds), and most importantly, a tight fingerprint scanner. Then it was corrected, but it was too late.

The main problem with Nokia 9 was that it is a smartphone for enthusiasts, where the "raisins" from the photo have to be picked out in a photo editor. This decision goes against the trends, which, on the contrary, are in the direction of simplification. Some camera manufacturers already hide the Pro mode from the main menu. For example, Samsung did this after updating its shell to the next version. Huawei says the same, promising that in the new P40 everything will work on the “point and shoot” principle, and the smartphone will decide for itself whether landscape, portrait or macro.

And here there is a duality of human perception: on the one hand, people want the prefix “for the pros” in the names of gadgets, on the other hand, they don’t want to bother. Accordingly, for success, you need to build a strategy on this. Like, we have 5 cameras, a choice of professional photographers and a bunch of settings under the hood, but in fact you can take great pictures in auto mode.

Speaking about Nokia smartphones, we can say that they have difficulties with positioning and perception. Probably, in order to reduce costs, smartphones are being released under the Android One program. And while some users may say that pure Android is great and timely updates are important, most users want the convenience of a shell and the ability to use the device out of the box without wasting time looking for an ad-free weather widget.

In general, Nokia has only played games on nostalgia so far, and despite the fact that about 30 devices have already been released in total, there have been only two really bright smartphones. I can remember Nokia 7 Plus and 9 PureView. At IFA 2019 in September, Nokia showed off the beautiful Nokia 7.2 powered by Snapdragon 660, which is over 3 years old.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

Conclusion

2020 is coming to Nokia under siege on all fronts. "Big" Nokia was unable to realize its advantage in the telecom equipment market and is now paying the price, HMD Global is under serious attack from competitors in the dialer market, which is also narrowing, and in the smartphone market, interest in the company has significantly decreased after a failed 9 PureView and walk-through models at IFA 2019.

The new smartphones, which we will tell you about on March 19, are accompanied by an advertising campaign with a daring slogan "The only gadget you need" and a partnership with James Bond (whose premiere was so unfortunately postponed to November). Let's keep our fingers crossed so that Nokia succeeds.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

Hysteria is gaining momentum. An advertisement for protective masks has arrived. He put on a mask on himself, on a dog and went so businesslike.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

But mask prices have jumped significantly. Here is how the cost of one of the high protection respirators has grown.

#Echo62: Is the new Nokia successful?

In China, the virus is on the decline, and factories are starting to work. The trouble is that the rest of the world is shutting down.

One of the curious consequences of the virus is the cancellation of NBA games. According to the WSJ, the two biggest sports channels alone spend $2.7 billion a year on US screenings. And this is not only the rights to broadcast, significant marketing budgets have been spent on these events. And now the channels are faced with the fact that they literally have nothing to put on the air. People are starting to unsubscribe. In short, even if the virus ends in the next couple of months, we will still be dealing with its consequences in all areas for a very long time.

Super coffee maker

In Silicon Valley, which is usually called Silicon Valley in Russia, there is a new feature that makes all IT startups squeal. This is AeroPress, a coffee maker for 1-3 cups. It costs 32 dollars. Customers all agree that the AeroPress makes the best coffee they've ever had. The inventor of the coffee maker, Mr. Alan Adler, has already earned himself a Bentley and a house by the sea in a prestigious location. As the inventor himself says, he played on the love of IT people for analog things.

#Echo62: Is the new Nokia successful?

The principle of operation is simple. You pour coffee, pour hot water, and then press with your hand, forcing water through the coffee and the filter. Everyone is very happy that they can independently control the grinding, water temperature, and pressure. I am glad that in our mega-modern world you can make money on Bentley by inventing a manual coffee maker. The main theme of Echo is Nokia. And, by the way, perhaps Nokia should learn something from the coffee maker. Still, both companies play on "analog".

Nokia

The crash of Nokia in 2013 is still one of the biggest events in the world history of the hi-tech industry. So many years have passed, and many works are still being published devoted to the analysis of the situation and the actions of management, theories are offered on how such a cataclysm could have been avoided.

For a proper understanding of the scale of what happened, it is important to remember that the destructive actions of Stephen Elop, the last CEO of the original Nokia, who buried it, were foretold in the book of Ezekiel 26:4,5:

And they will break the walls ... and destroy its towers; and I will sweep his dust out of him, and make him a bare rock. ... and he will be plundered

That's exactly what happened. During the reign of Stephen Elop, Nokia shares sank 62%, many patents were squandered, and Mr. Elop himself earned at least $ 30 million. That amount includes such amusing payouts as a $6 million welcome bonus for taking office, as well as €18.8 million in compensation when Microsoft took over the bankrupt Nokia. Even the government of Finland was surprised by the last amount.

One relief is that dirty deeds are always rewarded with retribution and everything happens as predicted (Ezek 25:7):

for the fact that you applauded and stamped your foot, and with all contempt for the earth ...

Behold, I will stretch out my hand against you and give you to be plundered by the nations, and I will cut you off from among the nations, and will blot you out from among the lands; crush you…

Everything is in accordance with the prediction. Satya Nadella, as soon as he gained full power at Microsoft, immediately reduced Elop. He tried to get a job at Telstra (a telecommunications provider in Australia), but from there he was laid off. And only at the end of 2019, Elop found himself a CEO position in a seedy startup developing analytics systems for aircraft. From a recent interview, it became clear that Mr. Elop did not understand anything. He described his work on integrating Nokia into Microsoft as "one of the best he has seen in his career in terms of insights, decision making and respect for people."

Nokia structure

After the perturbations with Microsoft, attempts began to revive phones under the Nokia brand. In general, speaking about Nokia, it should be remembered that this is a large corporation that has many divisions: Nokia Mobile & Fixed Networks, Nokia Software, Nokia Technologies and others.

And the failure with smartphones, although significant, did not kill the rest of the company. As you can see from the chart from the 2019 report, the company's main income comes from work in the telecommunications equipment market. Nokia is active in the 5G market.

#Echo62: Is the new Nokia successful?

It was like this. In 2015, the "big" Nokia thought about the revival of the Nokia phone brand and, in general, the continuation of the development of the gadget category. But in order not to lose focus, the CEO of the "big" Nokia Razhev Suri expressed a desire to be a partner with another company that would take over the entire routine associated with sales and promotion. This is how HMD Global appeared, founded by people from Nokia in collaboration with FIH Mobile, Foxconn's subsidiary, which, in fact, is a contract manufacturer. "Big" Nokia, despite having no investment in HDM Global, controls the latter through various licensing agreements, patent rights and technologies. According to rumors, she receives from 11 to 23 dollars from each sold phone in the form of royalties. And if they don't like something, they can even take away the rights to the brand, the agreement for which was concluded for a period of 10 years.

A similar situation with the Blackberry brand, when the original Blackberry goes about its business, and smartphones are produced by a third-party manufacturer, but in agreement with the parent company. The only difference is that there were Chinese, and here is a layer of their Finns, who are already communicating with the Chinese. They even have offices next door, less than 4 km in a straight line.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

If you draw a diagram, the current structure of Nokia looks like this. The "big" Nokia is in charge of networks and out of the corner of its eye controls what HMD Global does, which partners with Foxconn's subsidiary FIH Mobile to assemble Nokia-branded smartphones and phones.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

How successful is modern Nokia?

Big Nokia

I would like to start a conversation with the parent company. On the one hand, ordinary users are indifferent to it. On the other hand, she is a kind of guarantor of the quality of smartphones and phones, since she owns the brand. And things at Nokia, to put it mildly, are not very good. The fact that not everything is going well in the Finnish kingdom is also evidenced by the graph of investor confidence in the company, which has dramatically decreased over the past year.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

The problems are so obvious that Nokia changed its CEO in early March. And in place of Razhev Suri, who led the company for the last 10 years, came Pekka Lundmark (Pekka Lundmark). The transition is expected to be completed by September.

#Echo62: Is the new Nokia successful?

New CEO on the left, Razhev Suri on the right

The main problem: Nokia has not been able to win anything, despite the fact that other players in the market have a lot of problems. Huawei is fighting back against the US, and Ericsson paid more than $1 billion in fines over a corruption scandal in late December. The company admitted to bribing officials in China, Vietnam and Indonesia. This is a fairly serious reputational blow, which will shake up many contracts.

It is interesting that Huawei's position in the telecommunications market is still strong. The company offers such value for money that most operators and providers would rather incur the wrath of the US than spend money on Nokia. The new CEO will have to find solutions to restore people's faith in the company.

Phones and Nokia

As early as Thursday at 8 pm, the site will have a text dedicated to the new smartphones that the company was going to present at MWC. And we will be able to assess whether 2020 will be the year when the world starts talking about Nokia again.

In general, the timing is good. Yes, on the one hand, the world is in quarantine because of the virus, and everyone is worried. On the other hand, sitting within four walls is boring, and the Internet has already been flooded with videos of how Italians collectively sing songs, standing on balconies, how you can usefully spend time at home, and even how some athletes are preparing for a marathon and winding one by one for 50 kilometers (and this is without a treadmill, they run around the apartment).

Accordingly, a certain window of opportunity is now opening. Calm everywhere, most of the news is sad, film premieres and events are postponed. For brands, this is an opportunity to communicate with customers, captivate them, and when there is no other news, it is much easier to talk about your product.

"Dialers"

Usually, reporting helps to understand how the company earns. For example, it is clearly seen that Samsung is, in fact, an excellent manufacturer of components, specifically memory of all types and purposes. Apple's reporting clearly shows that this is a company of one product, without which everything will begin to crumble. Reporting from Canon, Olympus and other Japanese photo makers shows that in reality these companies are now more about medical technology than about photography. And the figures from Sony say that this is not about smartphones at all, however, this is understandable even without reports.

Looking by analogy at Nokia (HMD Global), it is obvious that we have a powerful manufacturer of push-button phones. Unfortunately, HMD Global does not share sales reports, so we have to be content with the assessment of analytical agencies.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

The graph shows that Nokia (HMD Global)'s core business is the dialer market. In 2019, the company sold only 14.5 million smartphones and 53.2 million push-button devices. If you think about it, then all the high-profile announcements of Nokia were generally associated with the "button". The company skillfully played on nostalgia, offering an updated model Nokia 3310 and a bright "banana" Nokia 8110.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

The market for push-button smartphones is actively falling every year, but it is still quite significant. In 2019, the drop was 22% and the volume decreased to 374.6 million pieces. The market will continue to fall. For example, due to the spread of smartphones in India, the local dialer market decreased by 42% over the year.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

Nokia's strongest positions are where the brand was well known.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

However, Nokia still does not have a bright hit in the portfolio. Nostalgia games did their job at the time of the announcement, but later people came to the conclusion that these were just similar smartphones and there was no spirit of a bygone era in them.

As an example of a breakthrough, I would like to cite Alcatel, which literally blew up the North American market in 2019. The market for push-button smartphones in 2019 there grew by 35%, and all thanks to Alcatel. Unrealistic figure.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

The reason for success? Go Flip is a series on KaiOS. KaiOS - Internet, e-mail and instant messengers like WhatsApp. But Nokia has almost the same stuff, why Alcatel? About push-button phones in the USA, I think I will make a separate article. But as a hint, I will leave a list of operators with whom Alcatel cooperates, and a screenshot from the store of one of the operators. Formally, no innovations, purely management and business. But inside the situation is much more interesting.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful? #Echo62: new Nokia successful? width=

Smartphones

However, in the smartphone market, the company is also not going smoothly. The "legendary" models are over, and Nokia began to push the competition.

Of the announcements on the smartphone market, perhaps only Nokia 9 Pure View with five cameras is remembered. By the way, here HMD Global tried to play on the legacy of the past, dragging in the name PureView, which was first heard at MWC in Barcelona in 2012, when the Nokia 808 PureView was announced.

#Echo62: Is the new Nokia successful?

They were talking about Nokia 9, and they were waiting for it with interest, but in the end it turned out that Nokia 9 was already at the time of release Office Table +Chair has received significant criticism. They criticized last year's formal chipset (why Snapdragon 845, but they said 855), and the slow operation of the cameras (photos in the gallery had to wait for 10 seconds), and most importantly, a tight fingerprint scanner. Then it was corrected, but it was too late.

The main problem with Nokia 9 was that it is a smartphone for enthusiasts, where the "raisins" from the photo have to be picked out in a photo editor. This decision goes against the trends, which, on the contrary, are in the direction of simplification. Some camera manufacturers are already hiding the Pro mode from the main menu. For example, Samsung did this after updating its shell to the next version. Huawei says the same, promising that in the new P40 everything will work on the “point and shoot” principle, and the smartphone will decide for itself whether landscape, portrait or macro.

And here there is a duality of human perception: on the one hand, people want the prefix “for the pros” in the names of gadgets, on the other hand, they don’t want to bother. Accordingly, for success, you need to build a strategy on this. Like, we have 5 cameras, a choice of professional photographers and a bunch of settings under the hood, but in fact you can take great pictures in auto mode.

Speaking about Nokia smartphones, we can say that they have difficulties with positioning and perception. Probably, in order to reduce costs, smartphones are being released under the Android One program. And while some users may say that pure Android is great and timely updates are important, most users want the convenience of a shell and the ability to use the device out of the box without wasting time looking for an ad-free weather widget.

In general, Nokia has only played games on nostalgia so far, and despite the fact that about 30 devices have already been released in total, there have been only two really bright smartphones. I can remember Nokia 7 Plus and 9 PureView. At IFA 2019 in September, Nokia showed off the beautiful Nokia 7.2 powered by Snapdragon 660, which is over 3 years old.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

Conclusion

2020 is coming to Nokia under siege on all fronts. "Big" Nokia was unable to realize its advantage in the telecom equipment market and is now paying the price, HMD Global is under serious attack from competitors in the dialer market, which is also narrowing, and in the smartphone market, interest in the company has significantly decreased after a failed 9 PureView and walk-through models at IFA 2019.

The new smartphones, which we will tell you about on March 19, are accompanied by an advertising campaign with a daring slogan "The only gadget you need" and a partnership with James Bond (whose premiere was so unfortunately postponed to November). Let's keep our fingers crossed so that Nokia succeeds.

#Echo62: is the new Nokia successful?

Hysteria is gaining momentum. An advertisement for protective masks has arrived. He put on a mask on himself, on a dog and went so businesslike.

But mask prices have jumped significantly. Here is how the cost of one of the high protection respirators has grown.

In China, the virus is on the decline, and factories are starting to work. The trouble is that the rest of the world is shutting down.

One of the curious consequences of the virus is the cancellation of NBA games. According to the WSJ, the two biggest sports channels alone spend $2.7 billion a year on US screenings. And this is not only the rights to broadcast, significant marketing budgets have been spent on these events. And now the channels are faced with the fact that they literally have nothing to put on the air. People are starting to unsubscribe. In short, even if the virus ends in the next couple of months, we will still be dealing with its consequences in all areas for a very long time.

Super coffee maker

In Silicon Valley, which is usually called Silicon Valley in Russia, there is a new feature that makes all IT startups squeal. This is AeroPress, a coffee maker for 1-3 cups. It costs 32 dollars. Customers all agree that the AeroPress makes the best coffee they've ever had. The inventor of the coffee maker, Mr. Alan Adler, has already earned himself a Bentley and a house by the sea in a prestigious location. As the inventor himself says, he played on the love of IT people for analog things.

The principle of operation is simple. You pour coffee, pour hot water, and then press with your hand, forcing water through the coffee and the filter. Everyone is very happy that they can independently control the grinding, water temperature, and pressure. I am glad that in our mega-modern world you can make money on Bentley by inventing a manual coffee maker. The main theme of Echo is Nokia. And, by the way, perhaps Nokia should learn something from the coffee maker. Still, both companies play on "analog".

Nokia

The crash of Nokia in 2013 is still one of the biggest events in the world history of the hi-tech industry. So many years have passed, and many works are still being published devoted to the analysis of the situation and the actions of management, theories are offered on how such a cataclysm could have been avoided.

For a proper understanding of the scale of what happened, it is important to remember that the destructive actions of Stephen Elop, the last CEO of the original Nokia, who buried it, were foretold in the book of Ezekiel 26:4,5:

And they will break the walls ... and destroy its towers; and I will sweep his dust out of him, and make him a bare rock. ... and he will be plundered

That's exactly what happened. During the reign of Stephen Elop, Nokia shares sank 62%, many patents were squandered, and Mr. Elop himself earned at least $ 30 million. That amount includes such amusing payouts as a $6 million welcome bonus for taking office, as well as €18.8 million in compensation when Microsoft took over the bankrupt Nokia. Even the government of Finland was surprised by the last amount.

One relief is that dirty deeds are always rewarded with retribution and everything happens as predicted (Ezek 25:7):

for the fact that you applauded and stamped your foot, and with all contempt for the earth ...

Behold, I will stretch out my hand against you and give you to be plundered by the nations, and I will cut you off from among the nations, and will blot you out from among the lands; crush you…

Everything is in accordance with the prediction. Satya Nadella, as soon as he gained full power at Microsoft, immediately reduced Elop. He tried to get a job at Telstra (a telecommunications provider in Australia), but from there he was laid off. And only at the end of 2019, Elop found himself a CEO position in a seedy startup developing analytics systems for aircraft. From a recent interview, it became clear that Mr. Elop did not understand anything. He described his work on integrating Nokia into Microsoft as "one of the best he has seen in his career in terms of insights, decision making and respect for people."

Nokia structure

After the perturbations with Microsoft, attempts began to revive phones under the Nokia brand. In general, speaking about Nokia, it should be remembered that this is a large corporation that has many divisions: Nokia Mobile & Fixed Networks, Nokia Software, Nokia Technologies and others.

And the failure with smartphones, although significant, did not kill the rest of the company. As you can see from the chart from the 2019 report, the company's main income comes from work in the telecommunications equipment market. Nokia is active in the 5G market.

It was like this. In 2015, the "big" Nokia thought about the revival of the Nokia phone brand and, in general, the continuation of the development of the gadget category. But in order not to lose focus, the CEO of the "big" Nokia Razhev Suri expressed a desire to be a partner with another company that would take over the entire routine associated with sales and promotion. This is how HMD Global appeared, founded by people from Nokia in collaboration with FIH Mobile, Foxconn's subsidiary, which, in fact, is a contract manufacturer. "Big" Nokia, despite having no investment in HDM Global, controls the latter through various licensing agreements, patent rights and technologies. According to rumors, she receives from 11 to 23 dollars from each sold phone in the form of royalties. And if they don't like something, they can even take away the rights to the brand, the agreement for which was concluded for a period of 10 years.

A similar situation with the Blackberry brand, when the original Blackberry goes about its business, and smartphones are produced by a third-party manufacturer, but in agreement with the parent company. The only difference is that there were Chinese, and here is a layer of their Finns, who are already communicating with the Chinese. They even have offices next door, less than 4 km in a straight line.

If you draw a diagram, the current structure of Nokia looks like this. The "big" Nokia is in charge of networks and out of the corner of its eye controls what HMD Global does, which partners with Foxconn's subsidiary FIH Mobile to assemble Nokia-branded smartphones and phones.

How successful is modern Nokia?

Big Nokia

I would like to start a conversation with the parent company. On the one hand, ordinary users are indifferent to it. On the other hand, she is a kind of guarantor of the quality of smartphones and phones, since she owns the brand. And things at Nokia, to put it mildly, are not very good. The fact that not everything is going well in the Finnish kingdom is also evidenced by the graph of investor confidence in the company, which has dramatically decreased over the past year.

The problems are so obvious that Nokia changed its CEO in early March. And in place of Razhev Suri, who led the company for the last 10 years, came Pekka Lundmark (Pekka Lundmark). The transition is expected to be completed by September.

New CEO on the left, Razhev Suri on the right

The main problem: Nokia has not been able to win anything, despite the fact that other players in the market have a lot of problems. Huawei is fighting back against the US, and Ericsson paid more than $1 billion in fines over a corruption scandal in late December. The company admitted to bribing officials in China, Vietnam and Indonesia. This is a fairly serious reputational blow, which will shake up many contracts.

It is interesting that Huawei's position in the telecommunications market is still strong. The company offers such value for money that most operators and providers would rather incur the wrath of the US than spend money on Nokia. The new CEO will have to find solutions to restore people's faith in the company.

Phones and Nokia

As early as Thursday at 8 pm, the site will have a text dedicated to the new smartphones that the company was going to present at MWC. And we will be able to assess whether 2020 will be the year when the world starts talking about Nokia again.

In general, the timing is good. Yes, on the one hand, the world is in quarantine because of the virus, and everyone is worried. On the other hand, sitting within four walls is boring, and the Internet has already been flooded with videos of how Italians collectively sing songs, standing on balconies, how you can usefully spend time at home, and even how some athletes are preparing for a marathon and winding one by one for 50 kilometers (and this is without a treadmill, they run around the apartment).

Accordingly, a certain window of opportunity is now opening. Calm everywhere, most of the news is sad, film premieres and events are postponed. For brands, this is an opportunity to communicate with customers, captivate them, and when there is no other news, it is much easier to talk about your product.

"Dialers"

Usually, reporting helps to understand how the company earns. For example, it is clearly seen that Samsung is, in fact, an excellent manufacturer of components, specifically memory of all types and purposes. Apple's reporting clearly shows that this is a company of one product, without which everything will begin to crumble. Reporting from Canon, Olympus and other Japanese photo makers shows that in reality these companies are now more about medical technology than about photography. And the figures from Sony say that this is not about smartphones at all, however, this is understandable even without reports.

Looking by analogy at Nokia (HMD Global), it is obvious that we have a powerful manufacturer of push-button phones. Unfortunately, HMD Global does not share sales reports, so we have to be content with the assessment of analytical agencies.

The graph shows that the main area of ​​activity of Nokia (HMD Global) is the market for dialers. In 2019, the company sold only 14.5 million smartphones and 53.2 million push-button devices. If you think about it, all the high-profile announcements of Nokia were generally associated with the "button". The company skillfully played on nostalgia, offering an updated model Nokia 3310 and a bright "banana" Nokia 8110.

The market for push-button smartphones is actively falling every year, but it is still quite significant. In 2019, the drop was 22% and the volume decreased to 374.6 million pieces. The market will continue to fall. For example, due to the spread of smartphones in India, the local dialer market decreased by 42% over the year.

Nokia's strongest positions are where the brand was well known.

However, Nokia still does not have a bright hit in the portfolio. Nostalgia games did their job at the time of the announcement, but later people came to the conclusion that these were just similar smartphones and there was no spirit of a bygone era in them.

As an example of a breakthrough, I would like to cite Alcatel, which literally blew up the North American market in 2019. The market for push-button smartphones in 2019 there grew by 35%, and all thanks to Alcatel. Unrealistic figure.

The reason for success? Go Flip is a series on KaiOS. KaiOS - Internet, e-mail and instant messengers like WhatsApp. But Nokia has almost the same stuff, why Alcatel? About push-button phones in the USA, I think I will make a separate article. But as a hint, I will leave a list of operators with whom Alcatel cooperates, and a screenshot from the store of one of the operators. Formally, no innovations, purely management and business. But inside the situation is much more interesting.

Smartphones

However, in the smartphone market, the company is also not going smoothly. The "legendary" models are over, and Nokia began to push the competition.

Of the announcements on the smartphone market, perhaps only Nokia 9 Pure View with five cameras is remembered. By the way, here HMD Global tried to play on the legacy of the past, dragging in the name PureView, which was first heard at MWC in Barcelona in 2012, when the Nokia 808 PureView was announced.

The Nokia 9 was talked about, and it was expected with interest, but in the end it turned out that Nokia 9 was already subjected to significant criticism at the time of the release of Office Table + Chair. They criticized last year's formal chipset (why Snapdragon 845, but they said 855), and the slow operation of the cameras (photos in the gallery had to wait for 10 seconds), and most importantly, a tight fingerprint scanner. Then it was corrected, but it was too late.

They talked about Nokia 9, and they were waiting for it with interest, but in the end it turned out that Nokia 9 was already at the time of release Office Table +Chair Office Table +Chair has been subject to considerable criticism. They criticized last year's formal chipset (why Snapdragon 845, but they said 855), and the slow operation of the cameras (photos in the gallery had to wait for 10 seconds), and most importantly, a tight fingerprint scanner. Then it was corrected, but it was too late.

The main problem with Nokia 9 was that it is a smartphone for enthusiasts, where the "raisins" from the photo have to be picked out in a photo editor. This decision goes against the trends, which, on the contrary, are in the direction of simplification. Some camera manufacturers are already hiding the Pro mode from the main menu. For example, Samsung did this after updating its shell to the next version. Huawei says the same, promising that in the new P40 everything will work on the “point and shoot” principle, and the smartphone will decide for itself whether landscape, portrait or macro.

And here there is a duality of human perception: on the one hand, people want the prefix “for the pros” in the names of gadgets, on the other hand, they don’t want to bother. Accordingly, for success, you need to build a strategy on this. Like, we have 5 cameras, a choice of professional photographers and a bunch of settings under the hood, but in fact you can take great pictures in auto mode.

Speaking about Nokia smartphones, we can say that they have difficulties with positioning and perception. Probably, in order to reduce costs, smartphones are being released under the Android One program. And while some users may say that pure Android is great and timely updates are important, most users want the convenience of a shell and the ability to use the device out of the box without wasting time looking for an ad-free weather widget.

In general, Nokia has only played games on nostalgia so far, and despite the fact that about 30 devices have already been released in total, there have been only two really bright smartphones. I can remember Nokia 7 Plus and 9 PureView. At IFA 2019 in September, Nokia showed off the beautiful Nokia 7.2 powered by Snapdragon 660, which is over 3 years old.

Conclusion

2020 is coming to Nokia under siege on all fronts. "Big" Nokia was unable to realize its advantage in the telecom equipment market and is now paying the price, HMD Global is under serious attack from competitors in the dialer market, which is also narrowing, and in the smartphone market, interest in the company has significantly decreased after a failed 9 PureView and walk-through models at IFA 2019.

The new smartphones, which we will tell you about on March 19, are accompanied by an advertising campaign with a daring slogan "The only gadget you need" and a partnership with James Bond (whose premiere was so unfortunately postponed to November). Keep your fingers crossed for Nokia to succeed.